Stellar growth 'has hit peak'
By Geoffrey Newman and David Uren
30 November 2004
COMPANY profit growth had probably peaked after surging to a record in the September quarter, and would likely feel the heat from wages pressures and a slowing economy, economists said yesterday.
Pre-tax profits soared 18.2 per cent to a record $24.2 billion in the quarter with retailers, miners and service industries leading the way.
The mining industry recorded a stellar quarter, with pre-tax profits reaching $4.7 billion, a 123 per cent rise on the previous quarter and almost double the quarterly average throughout last year.
This result was achieved on lower sales, with income from sales dropping by 4 per cent in the quarter to $14.6 billion.
The retail sector also performed well, with profits rising by 32.7 per cent to $1.8 billion.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics quarterly survey of business indicators shows that the retail sector enjoyed a sales volume increase over the quarter of 3.1 per cent, a stronger result than is suggested by the bureau's retail sales survey.
"Surging terms of trade, strong productivity growth and well-contained wage pressures are currently providing a sweet spot for Australian economies," Citigroup analyst Paul Brennan said.
He noted that the returns to retailers came in the face of softer consumer spending this year following the rate rises 12 months ago and the effect of higher interest rates.
Westpac senior economist Andrew Hanlan said that although the profit figures were backward looking, some of the trends in company performance would continue into next year.
He said that even though commodity prices were peaking, the price increases already experienced this year would allow miners BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto to extract higher prices during the negotiation of new contracts with Japan and China for iron ore.
"There still seems to be some momentum there," he said.
Surveys of future domestic business activity, such as the National Australia Bank survey, were also showing that businesses were confident about the months ahead. Data on capital expenditure last week also showed companies intended to lift investment spending next year, which will support business profits in areas such as retail.
The ABS survey underlines weaker profits in some sectors. A 30.7 per cent downturn in the construction industry partially reversed a larger gain in the previous quarter. Other services industries, including utilities, accommodation and recreation, enjoyed a 45.7 per cent lift in profit after dips over the previous three quarters.
Commonwealth Bank senior economist John Peters said the results showed that profits could be close to, or might have set, a new high compared with GDP.
Economic growth as a whole, scheduled to be released on Wednesday, may be slower, but companies are still doing well.
The ABS survey showed that the pace of inventory rebuilding slowed in the third quarter, with a rise of 0.3 per cent following a 1.8 per cent rise in the second quarter.
Mr Peters said the stocks to sales ratios in the major industry segments were close to historically low levels.
"The upside is new sales will quickly translate into output, and keep the economy ticking over," he said.
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